A research paper claims that metrics on the web prove that miners have capitulated, while whales appear to be the lone bitcoin buyers. Bitcoin (BTC) miners may have already triggered a “capitulation event,” according to a fresh analysis.
In a June 24 report, Julio Moreno, a senior analyst at CryptoQuant, a network data company, hinted that a BTC price bottom may now occur.
BTC price bottom “usually” follows the capitulation of miners
Since March 2020, the environment for miners has changed dramatically: from unprecedented profitability, their margins have shrunk.
The drop to $17,600 – down 70% from November’s record highs for BTC/USD – has hit some players hard, data now shows, as miners’ wallets send large amounts of coins to exchanges.
This, CryptoQuant suggests, precedes the final stages of the bitcoin sell-off more broadly in line with historical precedent.
“Our data demonstrates a surrender event occurred for miners, which usually preceded the market bottom in previous cycles,” Moreno summarized.
Miner sales have been closely monitored this month, with the Bitcoin Twitter account even describing the situation as one in which miners are “losing their coins.”
“It’s time for miners to decide whether to stay or go,” CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Joo added in a tweet last week.
The situation is tense, but most miners remain active, as evidenced by the network’s fundamentals, which have fallen only slightly from record highs of more than 30 trillion.
Mixed signals on buyer interest
When it comes to other major BTC holders, however, the picture looks less clear.
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After whales bought up about $19,000 worth of liquidity, Key CryptoQuant this week signaled the emergence of “new” big companies.
He noted that outflows from Coinbase, a major U.S. exchange, reached their highest level since 2013.
The trader and analyst at Rekt Capital, however, reiterated doubts about the strength of the overall volume of buyers, arguing that sellers, on the contrary, are still driving the market.